Thursday, July 3, 2008

4.0 QT Breakdown/Predictions

Blue Flight (odds to win flight)

LTF (6 to 1)
The addition of Forrest will make a difference and Wines is solid at singles and will Eddie play? Either way this team has some talent like Myers, Kennedy and Asako, curious to know about Nishazaki, he is a good player but looks to be injured or unavailable. They may not have been tested in a weak flight but they have learned how to win. In there one big test they crushed TBar M. I have to pick them to win this flight. They are not that deep of a team but in this flight format that won’t be an issue.

LBH/Jones (8 to 1)
I wish I had seen them play before but based on their upset win over Bartlett and solid wins in their flight they are a very good team. The DQ at the end of the season hurt bad because it seems like they were built around Dillender coming up big at line 1 singles. Cooper seems like a more than adequate fill in at the top spot and a few others have shown some flash at line 2 singles. Doubles wise they are a little hit and miss which is why I put them a little below LTF.

BH/Helterbrann (12 to 1)
This is another team I wish I had seen more in person but based on results I have to put them at the bottom of this flight but not by much. The match that worries me is the Garland match. They had a big chance to do something there and resorted to stacking doubles and it still didn’t work out for them. I think doubles is their weakness and although Boccara is a solid singles player he is not unbeatable which makes every match for them a toss up.

Red Flight

LBH/Spagnola (8 to 1)
I do have to side with this team but barely because they came from our flight and that would make me feel a lot better if they win. But more than any other team in the QT they have big guys at the top with Ratana and Walker coupled with strong doubles players like Robinson, Crow, Burton and Griffin. Donald Allen might be the difference, if he is good to go even a little bit I think this team will make it through just fine.

Garland (9 to 1)
I wasn’t that high on Garland but coming up solid against Brookhaven showed me they are for real, at least for this round of the playoffs anyway. I put them close to LBH because of Odulio, Mckinney, Singh and Oberto. Sierp is the mystery on this team, if he plays and lives up to previous results in seasons past that got him on this roster in the first place this team could get out of this flight. But this team needs a name other than the previous ones mentioned to jump out and play some good tennis or this will be as far as they go.

TBar M (15 to 1)
I just don’t see them doing that well, Wallace can play with anyone but past that their guys have hit or miss results. Against the only two good teams in their flight they lost 1-4. Their other wins came against teams littered with 3.5 players. Congrats on getting this far but I just don’t even see them winning a match here and will be lucky not to get swept by LBH and maybe even Garland.

45 comments:

  1. With those odds - if you were a casino, you'd be broke.

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  2. i'm disappointed that dillender got DQ'd. i've seen him play and he's a top notch 4.0. the jones team are newcomers to usta stuff and hadn't learned the tricks to protecting your ringers from being disqualified. too bad..i think they coulda' made some noise. not sure who they can shove into singles??? one of the jones boys? dean knight? cooper is a nice #2 but will have trouble against the big dogs.

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  3. I agree with Hacker, Dillender would have made this fun. I hate that some new teams like myself last year didn't have the right skills in managing all new players.

    I still think this DQ system needs some work, it seems like people are catching flags for beating people who don't even belong at their current level. I know that is a whole other convo but it just sux that someone gets DQ'ed for going out and playing fairly whereas someone who manages their scores gets to play on.

    i am curious to see if the USTA messed with other rating algorithms and if we will see more bump ups next week or just the same.

    I still think this new team could do well next weekend.

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  4. Sorry about the odds but I just don't see any of these teams as locks to win unlike at the 3.5 QT.

    I think that is great though since the winner of these flights goes straight to the QT. Also unlike 3.5 I don't think any great teams will be left out of the DCC, all these 4.0 teams are good enough to have a shot and just need to win 2 matches and if they can't then they ar enot deserving of advancing.

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  5. Red flight seems considerably stronger

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  6. not way stronger just some more experienced players. They don't have the great Eddie though in the red flight.

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  7. I think the Red Flight is quite a bit stronger than the Blue Group. Lifetime would have been the third strongest team in the Red Group. They barely beat TBM in the regular season winning 3-2, including a 7-6,7-6 match and 3rd set tiebreaker. I think Lifetime will get through their flight without a lot of problems, but will lose to either LBH or Garland in the final. The LBH vs Garland match should be a good very good.

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  8. "very good match". Sorry

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  9. I do not believe the winners of the 2 QT flights play in a final unless they meet in DCC

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  10. It will be interesting to see the lifetime A-team that eddie said didn't play against HP or TBAR. Ok Lifetime it's showtime. Show up or shut up!!!

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  11. Sorry, my mistake, I haven't really looked at the QT format too closely. I think it will be Lifetime and LBH. I wonder what they will use to decide which team goes into which half of the DCC? Lifetime will probably have the better record coming out of the easier flight. If that were the case I would think Lifetime would go into the flight with The Lakes and SpringPark and LBH would go in the flight with HighPoint and Greenhill. I think Lifetime will be there. It will be much tougher for LBH.

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  12. Actually, I think the lineup Eddie had against TBM was supposed to be his "A" team at the time. He predicted a big result and they barely squeeked by 3-2. Eddie was touting TBM as one of the top six 4.0 teams in Dallas.

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  13. TBar isn't very good this year. Beating them is no great accomplishment.

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  14. Schedules for Texas Sectional play are not yet out. But it looks like 4.0 Sectionals will be headquartered at Brookhaven. Sites for play include: Brookhaven, L.B. Houston, T-Bar-M, Greenhill, and Northwood Country Club. All good sites except for LBH which "kinda sucks".

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  15. Schedules for 4.0 sectionals *are* out, but not on the web yet. Sue sent them to coordinators already, so most captains should have them by now.

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  16. Sorry to disappoint, but most matches are at LBH, with a few Greenhills, Northwoods, and Tbars thrown in for good measure.

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  17. Lifetime is without many players for the QT including their top singles (Forrest) and doubles (Kennedy/Friedman). Their depth will be severely tested and since most believe they have no depth, their odds should go down. I also heard they were without Wines at singles so that leaves the one-armed Eddie to handle it by himself. I like both LBH teams to advance.

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  18. Why does Lifetime even field a team if they are always supposedly without top players??

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  19. Lifetime doesn't have ANY top players to be without.

    But at least I haven't seen them whining about it on this blog.

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  20. Cary, are we looking at one of the greatest finals ever with Nadal and Federer?

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  21. that match was amazing. I had it on TIVO and starting watching it around 10a or so, after rain delays I caught up to live tv around 1p and I couldn't walk away from the TV but yet I couldn't sit down either. It was hard to root against either guy, I really like both of them but in the end I wanted to see Rafa breakthrough so the race for #1 will be tight at the end of the season. I had to leave for my mixed match by 3:30p so they ended at a perfect time. I was thinking of defaulting my match to stay watching though.

    as much as I love tennis I normally don't watch a lot on TV because it doesn't always translate as well as live tennis matches but this match was amazing and I had a chance to watch some at my parents house on a high quality HD tv and it looked even better so maybe in the future tennis on TV will really benefit from tech upgrades.

    When will they start televising local league matches? That would be some funny stuff to watch.

    Actually my wife videotaped my match one time and I couldn't watch more than 3 games, pretty ugly stuff.

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  22. i think we would all watch Eddie play on TV.

    I also had heard that Wines may not be available

    Rockettman

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  23. With all of the chest pounding and fist pumping that Lifetime has done on this blog all season I hope they don't go out in the QT. I gaurantee you that the teams in the DCC will have everyone available and ready to play. Your team is only as good as the players you can put on the court each match. Sounds like Lifetime is not ready for the next level.

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  24. Sectional Tournament schedules have been released.

    Go to the USTA Texas Section
    Go to USTA Leagues
    Home/News
    Click on the first link

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  25. they are defintely out now and they stuck with the flights on the tenative schedule that I saw before. I will post up those flights today or tomorrow. some interesting flight match ups at 4.0 and 3.5

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  26. 4.0 SECTIONALS:

    POOL 1:
    Houston
    Abilene
    Dallas
    Waco
    WIld Valley

    POOL 2:
    Austin
    SETX
    Amarillo
    Wild Houston
    Midland

    POOL 3:
    San Antonio
    NETX
    Corpus Christi
    Wild Austin
    Lubbock

    POOL 4:
    Fort Worth
    Wild Dallas
    NOHO
    San Angelo
    Valley

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  27. damn, I am forfeiting. 7 am!!! who do these people think they are?

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  28. yep last year I was estatic we didn't have to play at that time. they do the same at nats in October for the sunday semi, the sun is barely up at that time. 9a is about as early as I like to play tennis.

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  29. Two of the better teams will be in the same flight. Dallas and Houston!! Wild Dallas looks a little easier with the exception of FT Worth.

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  30. Playing at 7 is six of one, half a dozen of the other. Yeah, it's awful early, but 80 degrees is a lot better than 100.

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  31. Pool 1 will most likely have 2, if not 3, of the best teams in it. Waco won Texas in 2006 and Houston won it in 2007. Both teams have the same captains (If Freeman's team comes in 1st) and both teams look good on paper. Add Dallas #1 to mix and you have yourself a battle royal to even get to Sunday.

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  32. Umm - how about the Sectional talk go under the Sectional header. Back on task - what QT matchups are people most looking forward to seeing -- any singles monsters going head to head or doubles matches that might be worth a looksy?

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  33. yep we have gotten off topic but unsure what to think about 4.0 QT, it is still strange to me that two teams will make it in but I guess that is done in 4.5 just in a different fashion. I would like to see Ratana or Walker v. Mckinney or Russell. Russell and Ratana used to play dubs together, I would take Ratana in a close one.

    curious to see how Forrest does against good playoff competition as well. He did well against Mckinney in Waco but unable to take out Blumberg in Tyler and lost 6-2, 6-2 after taking the first set off of him. Not sure there is a blumberg in this QT draw but LBH Jones is a mystery and Boccara is solid as well as Helterbrann himself if he plays singles.

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  34. Ratana 6-2, 6-3 over Russell
    Walker 6-4, 6-4 over McKinney

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  35. Does LBH stack singles or is Walker better than Ratana?

    Think you may be right on the Russell/Ratana score, but Walker over McKinney is no sure thing.

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  36. McKinney can beat them both. On a great day, so can Russell. All four nice guys.

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  37. The match ups and times are out Cary. How about creating a 4.0 stream with your picks. You know that 4.0 is the division that pays the most attention to this blog. Get things started and put that stream at the top of the blog.

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  38. looks like Eddie is back to form. Saw on the Challenge site that he beat Brinkman yesterday. Might he be ready to play full steam Friday???

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  39. Notice the Denise Terrill topic, only two responses. Both responses, the posters talk about how they won that tournament. Result, stream is dead. Sure way to kill a topic/stream? Brag about winning a tournament. Three certainties in life: 1) Taxes, 2) No one really cares about your golf game, and 3) No one really cares about your tournament wins.

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  40. Eddie"a tried to set himself up as the Paul Pierce of the QT. Lifetime might get to the DCC because of their favorable draw, but won't be a factor.

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  41. Wasn't Paul Pierce the NBA Finals MVP from the team the won the Championship. could there be a correlation?

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  42. I think what most will remember is Pierce jumping off the stretcher from his "major injury" without missing beat. Guessing same "injury" Eddie has miraculously recovered from just in time for QT. Still non-factor.

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  43. I love someone questioning my injury and comparing me to the finals mvp. You can look at my MRI if you like. I would prefer to be compared to Nadal when asked what his game plan for the match is. "I just fight, no?" Eddie

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  44. O.K. O.K., you got it. Eddie "Nadal" HIll.

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  45. You can use my famous quote "freaky deaky" anytime.

    Leon Spinks

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