Friday, November 16, 2007

4.0 Playoff Preview and odds to win the weekend (I’ll take bets)

High Point (3 to 1)
I have to put them at the top since you can’t go against the sectional runner-up with the exact same roster plus a few good additions. Still no guarantees at singles but there isn’t any mega ringers among the 6 teams so that shouldn’t be an issue since they should at least earn a split each time out. I think it will come down to them or the Lakes winning this tournament.

Lakes (6 to 1)
This team although they made it to the QT tourney last season is somewhat of a surprise to me but a few good additions here and there and this team is rolling along and will get a chance to show just how good they are and I think they will do well although I am not convinced they are extremely deep at doubles but Jobe looks to have moved from singles to help shore up the doubles group and Ramesh Balan is a tough player. I think they will depend on singles to carry them through this tourney but they have a good group with Runda, Jobe, Tran and Valtierra.

Brookhaven/Bartlett (10 to 1)
I would love to rank them higher especially since they came from our flight but they have a lack of depth at singles that will hurt them. Don Buford should account for a win just about each time out but past that Archer and Lazarra cannot pull off victories at this level. They have some great doubles teams though so if they can get a split at singles these team can be in the mix each time out only needing two doubles wins.

Springpark (15 to 1)
Flight B may not have been stacked with power teams but they were undefeated until the final week with their sole loss to #2 Lakes so I think they are about even with Bartlett’s group. This ranking is mainly earned from making it to Sectionals in the Spring. They did lose Walters and Erickson so they weakened them at singles and doubles but they are still a strong and experienced team that should do well but now lack a little depth to contend with the top two teams.

Stonebridge (25 to 1)
This team is a lot like Bartlett’s group in that their singles play may hurt them but there is no denying they have some good doubles teams but then again so does everyone else in the playoffs so that is why I have to rank them this low. Singles players Nix and Ruiz will keep them in the running though since I just don’t see any singles superstars in these six teams.

Brookhaven/Pearlman (50 to 1)
I know they fought hard to get into the playoffs but I just don’t see this team being able to stack up against the better teams. Other than Renwick and Chiu this team’s biggest strength is being consistent which was enough to get them through the regular season but I just don’t see the weapons that can have them come out on top of this list of teams. Also as much as I like my team if we beat them I find it hard to think they could beat out the top 5 teams in the league but they should be congratulated on bouncing back from a bad start to make the playoffs.


  1. Be careful about taking bets as you know all to well that some teams may be willing to play to lose to help out another team/player (or in this case to win a bet). You don't want to get caught up in the middle of that.

    But I guess if it goes on at the Pro level, why not here...or does it go on at the Pro level?

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  3. 4.0 Flights assigned:

    Brookhaven Bartlet
    Highpoint Somabut
    Springpark Swift

    Lakes Weatherby
    Stonebridge Muetzel
    Brookehaven Pearlman

  4. ouch at 4.0 it is the Red flight that is tough. HP, Bartlett and Springpark. That will be tough, I see the Lakes cruising thru the Blue

  5. forecast for 4.0s--

    bob, bob and bob

  6. I agree Bob should win but they will have 3 tough matches Bartlett beat them last year if i am not mistaken and Springpark will be tough and then presumably they will play the Lakes in the finals who hasn't lost a match all year. If they cruise thru the weekend they should be extra scary for the Spring since they can only add to this team and I don't think they have any players that will get bumped up.

  7. Playoff Preview? Let me give you a player to keep a close eye on. Kyle on Brookhaven Pearlman's team. My prediction is that he will go undefeated in the playoffs. And yes, I know that is only worth one line, but he was and is the best player that I saw in 4.0. Look it up, he took out Trae Mckinney 6-1 in the first set. I realize that it was 7-6 in the second, but............. we will see.

    Maybe if you go undefeated in singles during a league season, you get bumped up. But have one or two close matches and lose a match and maybe just maybe that allows you fly under the radar for one or two more seasons.

    Just a thought.

  8. winning the fall league has historically shown itself to be no great precursor to spring success. i feel the reason for this is that with the bye into the spring league championships teams have no pressure to motivate them to improve over the spring season. bob's team from last spring had to fight through city qualifying just to get to city champs and were thus battle tested as opposed to scott's team which won the fall league and fell flat at city last year. the smart (albeit of marginal integrity)teams use the fall league to protect their ratings and then put themselves in a situation where they have to perform in the spring.

    thank you, thank you very much

  9. I think it all depends on which Kyle Rhodes shows up. The one who beat Trey Mckinney or the one who got taken out in straight sets by Eddie Hill. I have seen Kyle play and he has such great pure strokes but can get frustrated, if he is playing well Pearlman's team could make some noise but even with that I would find it hard to see them getting past the Lakes in their flight. I don't think Kyle will get bumped up since he was a 3.5 not that long ago so to jump up to 4.5 he would have to have a lot of results (10 or so) that were completely dominant over top 4.0 players but with his game he could be a 4.5 within a year or two.

    I agree a little with your thoughts on the fall winner but I honestly just think Scott's team lost too many important players and Bob's team was deeper at doubles. If they win the fall I think they will be even more interested in the Spring since they were one match from Nats so in order to improve on last Spring they would have to go to Nats so that sounds like good motivation to me.

  10. "If they win the fall I think they will be even more interested in the Spring since they were one match from Nats so in order to improve on last Spring they would have to go to Nats so that sounds like good motivation to me."

    motivation is one thing but does not equate to competitive challenge, very few tourney players on that team. tough to keep competitive edge when no matches matter.

    "Scott's team lost too many important players" thx

  11. no offense on the important players comment, the only one that pops in to mind was Luis Ardila, too bad he couldn't have stuck around I think the Spring playoffs might have been different. Do you really think tourney play makes you competitively tough. I haven't played that many but for me there is no pressure when I am on my own but there is a whole other type of pressure when you arep playing and 7 other guys plus non playing guys are depending on you. One of my guys admitted that to me, he folded in a big match at Sectionals and said the pressure got to him mentally and finally physcially as well, he plays well in HP leagues and in tourneys but league play he loses to lesser players. I think it truly depends on the player, for me I like the team atmosphere it gets me fired up and with guys like Kris, Doug, Joel and Kirby I don't think they will have any trouble keeping an edge. Also if I move to 3.5 I plan on helping them out with some of our guys that played well in the fall.