Thursday, November 13, 2008

4.0 Fall Playoffs

So it seems like weeks since our 4.0 season ended but one more week to go until we get our party started. I am looking forward to getting on the court as I am sure the other 7 teams are, see you there. I mentioned earlier that I think the flights are pretty solid and even but the tougher flight I believe is the Blue Flight so let's look at that one:

Blue Flight: HP/Bob, Greenhill, BH-Cliff and BH-Burt

Longshot: BH-Cliff (Odds 25 to 1)
In order for this team to make it I believe they will have to sweep doubles each time out. The thing is they have strong enough players to make that happen with Helterbrann, Mattes, Moore, Renzewiki, Barr, Smith and Olivier. I don't know if they will trust in that strategy but in my mind it is their only hope because they have struggled at singles but they are dangerous team who won 13 out of their 15 last matches, so we will see if their fire has died after a 3 week layoff.

In the mix: BH-Burt (Odds 12 to 1)
I know they went undefeated but as I mentioned they are in a tough flight against some deep teams. They do have a luxury of some great singles talent in Powell, Jenkins, Parekh and Renwick. They will need Brooks/Renwick or whatever Burt deems his top doubles duo to show up big and then their odds become very strong to win this flight.

Very close but I just don't know: Greenhill (Odds 7 to 1)
I will be honest I wasn't upset when they missed our flight. With singles talent like Contreras, Windham and Durand they will be a threat in every match and that is why I like them more than Burt's team because Fernando is along with Jean Nguyen the best singles player in this flight. Their achilles heel might be doubles although mid season add Lance Lockhart will help as well as John Hagen who has converted from singles to be a very solid doubles player. They play HP at 6p on Friday so this flight might be decided early if my hunches are correct.

Favorite: High Point/Bob: (Odds 2 to 1)
Hard to bet against Bob's crew even if their makeup is much different than previous seasons. Also there is most likely no chance even if they win that they can retain 70% of their players because these players will move to 4.5 (Newman, Voss, Nguyen, Kemp x 2) although they will be on the border at 68% if that prediction is correct and Doug Smith is borderline as well which would put them way out of reach of retaining the required amount of players. But because of that reason they have a set of previous mentioned players that should carry them to Sunday morning. They have had issues at singles though and not sure Dreskin and Taillat can carry them in this tourney, Nguyen will have to hop in there but that does take away a strong doubles player. Not sure if Terrell (the Springpark transfer) can help but he is solid.


Red Flight: HP/SWAT, Lifetime, OC and Lakes

Longshot: Lakes (Odds 25 to 1)
Sorry Rockettman, I like your team but was hoping you all would be in the blue flight for matchup reasons for you all. It is tough to judge since the Lakes has 80 players on their roster but that seems to be part of the issue like in the Spring it came to playoffs and their doubles teams seemed to not step up against the teams that had played more together. With that said this is still a good team with Tran, Holt, Jobe, Richardson and late add Fix they will be dangerous.

Upset special: OC/Smith (Odds 15 to 1)
I know better to sleep on this team since they beat Bob's team but the reason they can't be a favorite is depth which got exposed against the Village B team and almost cost them a playoff spot. The seem to just be using Kelley and Ahner and hoping to get a split each week and that will probably work for them next weekend again and they have some solid doubles play from Hughes, Barnhard, Webb and late add Garcia (hate those late adds, mystery players). I do like they way the bounced back after a bad loss and beat a good LBH team and then swept the Springpark B team, that shows they have some fight.

Co-favorite: Lifetime (Odds EVEN)
Ok why not since the LTF'ers are the most ardent posters and more importantly because Eddie and his team have moxy I have to consider them up at the top of this flight. Feuille has been on a roll but did lose to Tikashi and then Osorio took him out in the Masters final last weekend but he is still one of the top singles players that will be playing next weekend. Enough about Forrest though, Lifetime's strength is in doubles with Kennedy, Harris, Myers, Morrison and Asako. I am looking forward to our Saturday morning matchup. Good luck team Eddie, I will make sure and play that match against you all.

C0-favorite: HP SWAT (Odds EVEN)
I am not going to lie I love my team and win or lose next weekend I will still love my team. The reason I like my team is much like Eddie's team we have some guys who are scrappy and in the end playoffs usually come down to the points where one guy is just willing to come up with one more shot.

Finals Prediction: HP SWAT v. HP Bob

I would love to see this happen and I am sure my guys would as well.

Prediction: PAIN. SWAT wins 4-1

80 comments:

  1. I thought the 70% rule only applied to players that did not get moved up. If you had 20 guys and 4 got moved up, I thought you only had to have 70% of the 16 eligible players on the roster. I've obviously never won the fall so I don't know for sure. Can anybody clarify?

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  2. Wow. I guess you had to pick your own team, but I think you know the truth. Boy would I love to see you in the line-up. Won't matter either way. Lifetime wins 4-1. See you next week. Eddie.

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  3. I'm not sure if most people got your "Rocky" quote, but it is one of the best all time. "Clubber, what is your prediction for the fight?" ...."PAIN" Too bad it will be HP/Bazaan on the wrong end of a "can" that Lifetime will open up on them.

    Bazaan, what ya gonna do, when a gang of Lifetimemaniacs jump down on you!!!!

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  4. The only person that needs to worry about the 70% rule is Eddie because someone should just give them the trophy now.

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  5. Wow! Very interesting odds.

    If one really looks at and studies the talent, Brookhaven has the best shot at winning it!

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  6. Brookhaven has 2 big problems with beating a good team. Line 2 singles and Line 3 doubs. They are below average in both. they are average in Line 2 doubs. Strong in Line 1 singles and Line 1 Doubs. Against good teams you are flipping a coin at best in their 2 strongest lines and dropping the other 3. Sorry No Brookhaven!!!

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  7. hp bob hp bob hp bob

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  8. Somabut will 2-peat as the Fall Champions!

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  9. HP/but will have a hard time getting out of Blue flight. Lifetime wins this thing going away. I wonder if tanking will come up at all during DCC?

    If so, it would be advised to go "Cliff" on them.

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  10. HP/SWAT... What does the SWAT stand for?

    Stunned When Accused of Tanking????

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  11. Stopped While Attempting to Tank???

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  12. Stuck With Average Talent????

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  13. Should Win At Three.5 ?????

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  14. After the DCC Bazaan 4.0 will be SWAT...

    Still Without A Title???

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  15. Scrappy Without Any Talent ???

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  16. Seriously Worried About Team/lifetime??

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  17. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  18. ooh. pretty scary.

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  19. Team Bazan is loaded! All you haters,bring the popcorn!!!!!!!!!!!
    Cary and his team have done a good job! Somabut is always a force!!
    I hope to join forces w/both in the spring and collectively build a National team!!!!!!
    Sisk

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  20. Sisk defending Bazan, what is the world coming to?

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  21. Yes I see, now that the cheaters, Garland Sisk, found out that other teams cheated better than he did there's no stopping him. Now he'll just have to 12 up all the rest. Why not just be competitive without all the Floras
    and such and not worry about Nationals?

    What's the use? Let's just all sandbag and hide players that are way out of level!!!

    What is it, monkey see monkey do.

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  22. Oddsmaking 101

    Cary, you're a bit off on your odds. Here's how:

    There is a 1 out of 1 chance that "someone" will win each flight. Therefore, as you divide up the odds between teams, they all must add up to 1.00. For example, you have the following odds in the blue flight:

    BH/Cliff 25 to 1 (1/25 = 0.04 chance)
    BH/Burt 15 to 1 (1/15 = 0.067 chance)
    Greenhill 7 to 1 (1/7 = 0.14 chance)
    HP/Bob 2 to 1 (1/2 = 0.5 chance)

    0.04 + 0.067 + 0.14 + 0.5 = 0.747

    If you wanna get it right, you better change our odds so they all add up to 1.00

    Good luck all

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  23. Well heck yes, I think that if Dallas will just play fair then the rest of the section/country/world will all fall in line with our glorious example and everybody will win. Golly gee...gold balls for everyone I say.

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  24. hey oddsmaker

    you are all wet, betting odds do not equal probability nor are they even directly related.

    using your "logic" a payout at 4 to 5 (very common, go to lone star park sometime) would indicate a probability of 1.25......... in the words of ralphie wiggum "that's unpossible"

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  25. It would be very easy to win money if anybody would actually take these bets.

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  26. However, I do think that all of the odds would have to add up to 1, only if the matches were completely random. Like with rolling dice or cards, etc.
    If the matches were random, obviously each team would have a 1/4 chance of winning or .25. .25 x 4 = 1. Has this blog seriously deteriorated to discussing math though? That's what happens when everybody gets a week off.

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  27. For oddsmaker and the corrector of oddsmaker -

    Both of you are wrong. But corrector of oddsmaker is more wrong.

    The odds should add up to 1. However, neither of you understand how to convert odds into a %.

    If the odds are 4 to 1, then the probably of something happening is 20% [1/(1+4)]. At the horse races, a horse at 1-2 odds would be a 67% chance.

    Clearly, you guys should stick to talking about tennis.

    -Tennis player that used to play too much poker-

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  28. Tough call...I like Bazan's team and lifetime..I hope one of them makes it to the finals!

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  29. By the way, poker is random, hence my comment that all odds would add up to 1, only in random situations. If you were betting in Vegas, I doubt the odds of all horses in a horse race would add up to 1.

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  30. To 11/14 1:07 pm Anonymous:

    You're correct...my bad.

    OK, no more math from here...all tennis.

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  31. No, the odds of all horses in a horse race would add up to more than 1. The amount above 1 is the house profit. If they added up to less than 1, Vegas would lose money.

    Obviously math was not your strong suit.

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  32. Trae Bowman is hot. I would like to get me some of that sexy chocolate. A little mint chocolate chip? Cookies and cream? Trae is the hottest 4.0 player in Dallas.

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  33. Not sure what to say after that. Okay?? Let's talk about Fridays matches.

    Lifetime v. Lakes Lifetime wins 4-1

    HP/Bazaan v Oak Creek HP/Baz wins 3-2.

    HP/But v Greenhill HP wins 3-2

    BH/Pearl v BH/Helt BH/Pearl wins 5-0

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  34. Well, I think H.P./But got the easy draw. Just my opinion, take for what it's worth.

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  35. When you are the best team to begin with, all draws are easy.

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  36. Funny... Not the case at all. HP/But is 3rd at best and probably 4th best team in Dallas. Just 3 days away from getting this all settled anyhow.

    Look to see Lifetime and Brookhaven in the Final on Sunday with Lifetime winning out to capture first title of any kind at 4.0 level.

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  37. HP/SWAT (Seriously Worried About Team/lifetime) will lose bad Saturday morning against Lifetime. They will be very lucky if they avoid the 5-0 sweep.

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  38. 4.0 Saturday morning matches.

    Lifetime v. HP/Baz... Lifetime wins 4-1
    A lot of trash talk for this one in what is supposed to be 4.0 match of the year. HP just does not match up well.

    Lakes v. OC... Lakes wins 3-2

    HP/But v. BH/Helt... HP wins 4-1

    BH/Pearl v. Ghill... BH wins 3-2

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  39. Just Curious......
    Which High Point team is the "B" Team? Somabut or Bazan???

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  40. My choice is Bazan team. They have the most "B" Players. :-) Bazan, Bowman, T and Bowman, K. Could they be called the High Point "KILLER B'S"

    Just a thought.

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  41. "B" Team because the Bazaan HP Team is the HP "JV"...."B" means second best...not the "A" team.

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  42. HP SWAT or Bazaan is the "B". B for Bad that is. They will be lucky to win a match in their flight. I predict they go 0-3 this weekend.

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  43. Somebody help me understand what all this conversation is about. Anyone that has seen the top teams knows that Lifetime has by far the best talent. From what I understand they have everyone except Hill able to play. They will win this thing going away. No need to talk all the talk.

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  44. Rumor has it that Hill received a medical exception to play this weekend, is contemplating playing and is currently listed as a "Gametime Decision"

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  45. I heard that too, but also heard that he can't serve yet. I saw him hit with Lifetime team this past week and he looked like he has not missed a beat. Don't think he can serve til December per Dr.'s orders. Will be interesting to see this weekend.

    Maybe he goes underhand for DCC.

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  46. Anybody who is taking that rumor seriously is foolish. Here is something that isn't a rumor: Bazan's team lost a scrimmage to Sisk 1-4 this Sunday, with both of Bazan's singles studs going down.
    Hard to imagine they can win the DCC if they can't beat a 3rd place team. Sorry Cary I had to give the scoop.

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  47. Not a rumor. I've got a valuable inside source that is very reliable. Oops gotta go, Martha is returning my call.

    Mark Cuban

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  48. Funny. I have seen both of their so-called singles STUDS are not studs at all. Noaman has no backhand and Kent is very erratic. TOO Bad for poor Cary.

    Lifetime will dominate them.

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  49. Cary. Does that change the odds for your team this weekend. Odds are if you can't beat the 3rd place team in one flight. You won't be able to beat the best team in Dallas. LTF

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  50. Don't make to big a deal out of HP/SWAT losing to Sisk this weekend. Rumor has it that Kent and Noaman were tanking again. They did not realize this match did not count and they could play all out.

    HP/SWAT (Someone Will Always Tank)

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  51. Prediction: PAIN in your butt's while you sit and Watch Lifetime and HP/But play in the Final on Sunday Morning.

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  52. DCC Weather REPORT...

    Friday Night Temp. 43 degrees

    Saturday Morning Temp. 60 degrees

    Saturday Afternoon Temp. 61 degrees

    Sunday Morning Temp. 64 degrees

    Cold Weather = Advantage Younger Players

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  53. Corey,
    What is wrong w/my 3rd place team?Uh, I know,missing you and Trey?
    This is the fall,and I'd love to be playing for a bye in the spring,just didn't work out!Hill/Bazan/Somabut wins it! I'd like to scrimmage any of the above!
    Sisk

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  54. Highpoint Somabut will win it all!!!

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  55. Yes, you have to admit, if hp/bob takes it seriously then should win without much problem.

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  56. How seriously can we take a team named after somabut. Now "allabut", now that's a team to be reckoned with.

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  57. Somabut/Noneabut/Allabut.... it don't matter.

    The final will be Brookhaven v. Lifetime.

    Lifetime wins it all!!!!!

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  58. Ok Cary. Time put out you last thoughts on this weekend and your predictions for the 3 matches that are set.

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  59. Tell me again WHY we care about Cary's opinion? Everyone knows that anonymous rules this blogsite!

    All he is going to say is Highpoint this and Highpoint that. Heck, I'm just amazed that he found a way to stumble a team into the playoffs.

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  60. Funny... You are right. I liked him better when he was complaining about how good his flight was and going 2-5 in the spring. That's ok. Lifetime will kick his ass Sat morning and he will complain about having to be in their flight all winter.

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  61. the voting for who will win is nuts. it is just a popularity contest with team allegences. How does BH/Pearl not have more votes. They are the #1 seed overall and they beat Lifetime who seems to have the most votes.

    Crazy!!!! BTW... I think Lifetime will win it all too.

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  62. I love it. Nice entry above Cary. No place to comment though. Best part is the picture and the comment about Eddie.

    "Bring it On" Big Fella. You got your hands full this weekend.
    Lifetime will kick your ass!!!!

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  63. Cary likes to watch movies about cheerleading. Life imitates art.

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  64. Why are you so hateful?

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  65. Let's ask the most important question. Which Bring It on Movie was the best? Bring It On(1)? Bring It On Again(2) or Bring It On-All or Nothing(3)? or Bring It On-In It To Win It(4)?

    How do I know all of these movies? I've been over Cary's house and looked into his DVD Library. You would be AMAZED as to what the Bazaar, I mean Bazan's like to watch. :-)

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  66. Forget about what I have done with my hair. Look at what I have done with my bare middrift.

    Eddie.

    Don't know what to say about your choice of movies Cary, but I must admit I have seen "Bring it On"... something about girls in cheerleading uniforms. Let's be honest. Gabrielle Union is "bringing it"... I might have to ask my wife to pull out her old HS cheerleader outfit tonight.

    Back to Tennis. Can't wait to put a whoopin on HP/Baz Saturday morning. Need to handle our biz Friday night against a tough Lakes team. See you all Friday. Good luck.... except for HP/Scared & Wilting Around Team/lifetime.

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  67. seems like Cary is getting a little testy as the pressure builds and the time closes in for the real deal.

    Rockettman

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  68. Now, I finally understand why the Fall Season is not that big a deal. It's TOO DAMN COLD to be out there playing tennis and not being paid to play.

    (With the exception of Somabut's team of course)

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  69. I may have to pay a few guys to show up this weekend. It is cold as hell outside. It will be around 40 degrees at match time for us and get colder and the night goes on. I will not be hard to notice with my Michelin Man jacket on watching matches.

    Eddie

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  70. HP/SWAT

    "you put the "weak" in weekend warriors."

    "you put the "tank" in cantankerous"

    "you put the "ass" in Lasst Place"

    "you put the "trash" in trash talkers"

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  71. they also put the gay in gay rod

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  72. Lifetime won 4-1
    Bazan lost 3-2

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  73. Hey Eddie, we can see what you've been doing this whole time off while recovering; Eating like a pig! I don't think you needed to wear that jacket tonite to resemble the Micheling Man. But without it on, you looked more like the Pillsbury Dough Boy. In fact, I heard some at the Brookhaven club house asking who the black John Sisk was? The winner of the Sisk, Wiley, Hill round robin treats at soup and salad, emphasis on the latter.

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  74. I am still a slim and trim. 195. I bet I can beat you in a race.

    Anyway don't worry about me. I will just come bare chested for tomorrows match so you can see my six pack.

    Eddie

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  75. Hey Cary. What are the odds that Lifetime sweeps your team at 10am. I say it's odds are even on that.

    HP/SWAT (Seems We Are Through)

    HP/SWAT (So What About That) loss

    HP/SWAT (Sorry We Almost Tied)

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  76. According to tennis link, end of season ratings have a tentative release date of Dec. 1. Time to see if that tanking and sandbagging paid off.

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