So it comes down to this weekend to decide whether team Bob will return to sectionals, again. Or will John Sisk make his first 4.0 appearance after 3.5 success. A retooled Lifetime could make a 2nd appearance in two years if their new young guns deliver. Brueckner's Garland team, BMO's Greenhill crew and the Lakes look to make some noise as well.
Blue Flight
Adjusted Odds to win and advance to sectionals:
High Point: EVEN
This team although not even close to the national team from a year ago does have some solid talent like Bearden, Taylor, Pearson, Quist, Baker, Le, Thierault and Robinson (not Keith but Mike this year) Because of that depth and some solid singles players for backup like Pearson this team will be tough to overcome.
Lifetime: 5 to 1
I got to see this team first hand and most likely their strongest lineup and they will match up well with Garland and JCC but not well enough to overpower Team Bob. Huynh, Carey, Smith and Zach Baker are strong but if it comes down to Stephen Bennet, Gerber and others to come up with wins against the names listed above I am going to be hard pressed to see them coming up with wins.
Garland/Brueckner: 15 to 1
I think it will be a wash between this team and Lifetime. Sierp, Metcalf, Huling and Singh showed they can put this team on their back and make some noise but 2nd place in the QT does not get me excited enough to pick an upset but should handle JCC just fine.
JCC: 80 to 1
Happy to be here team although they will not be pushovers at all. There is just not enough depth to win a flight like this, if they do they will most likely have to win 3-2 each time out.
Red Flight
Odds to win and advance to Sectionals
Garland/Sisk 2 to 1
I don't consider this pick a lock at all. I know John has recruited and a college dorm room to play half the matches but club tennis is essentially 4.0 tennis so who knows. I do think it will come down to how these guys play and they will be up against some experienced players. They tough thing about Sisk's team is they played in a weak flight so it is tough to know how good they are.
Greenhill 12 to 1
This team showed up strong and BMO was even throwing out some INSTANT Karma smack talk. I love it. This team has some depth and after avoiding losing any players last weekend I like them even more. I think Bergeron/Yaremenko will be the difference if these two can win against Garland and Lakes I like their chances, if not I don't see them winning.
Lakes 25 to 1
I have always been a fan of this crew and I am surprised they cruised along to the DCC. It is hard to pick them 3rd but I just don't see them overtaking Greenhill and Garland but they will be in the mix till the end.
Brookhaven 60 to 1
Also in the happy to here crew with JCC. This team earned this spot with a great DCC in the Fall and it will take another great effort for this team to make some noise. The pieces they lost were just not replaced and therefore they are just in it for fun but will still be dangerous in doubles, there only reasons for pause is there win over High Point in the regular season, but can they pull out 3 wins of the caliber in a weekend?
I'd like to start this round of betting by placing a $500 bet on the Lakes at 10-1 odds - they are better than Greenhill - no idea about Garland, but at 10-1, seems like a great value bet.
ReplyDeleteBased on these moronic odds, give me $500 on GTC at 4-1, $500 on GH at 6-1, $500 on Lakes at 10-1, and $500 on BH at 20-1. One of those teams will advance to sectionals and I win no matter what with those odds.
ReplyDeleteGTC wins I win $2000, actually profit $500
GH wins i win $3000, profit $1500
Lakes win $5000, $3500 profit
BH win $10000, profit $8500.
Nice odds Bazan, nice 2nd grade math. You cannot lose betting those odds!! Place money on each member of the flight and you win, that makes sense.
Bazan, last I remember you predicted we would need all the luck in the world to beat your team. Now you are calling me out. How did that fare when I played you guys, cause I don't remember our match even being competitive? And look where that left you, on the sidelines commentating, just like you were in the match against us.
ReplyDeleteWe like being underdogs, bring your popcorn this weekend.
Gerber
The Lakes is the best team by far! We already beat GH once, we will thump them again. Sisk team will come up short in the playoffs once again. BH, no comment.
ReplyDeleteWe just hope Foy plays. How about this, if Lakes loses, BMO will personally give Foy a buzz cut. Deal?
ReplyDeleteGH has the best doubles & Lakes has the best singles. Just because you don't know what Sisk has doesn't mean its good. GH/Lakes rematch decides this flight.
ReplyDeleteOn the other side, come one, who wants to bet against Bob?
who the top ten 4.0 players this weekend?
ReplyDeleteThe Lifetimers seem to be in a foul mood. I'm betting they use the collective chips on their shoulders to shock and awe the odds-on favorite this weekend.
ReplyDeletesingles or doubles? You have to include Taylor, Peterson and Baker from Bob's group and I haven't seen them play but I hear a lot about the Blake's and have seen Singh have a few good wins. In Doubles Mattes, Oliver and Smith for Brookhaven are pretty tough, any others?
ReplyDeleteOk Carey, for the future, just remember it needs to add up to 1.00approximately (give our take the house money). so right now you are at .55, so the house is paying out a LOT of money. If you did Garland 1 to 4 instead of 4 - 1 that puts you just over. I think you could just do it this way.
ReplyDelete40% chance of Garland to win
30% chance of GH to win
25% chance of The Lakes to win
03% chance of Revelations happening
02% chance of BH to win
So, 2 out of 5, 1 out of 3, 1 out of 4, and 1 out of 5 (grouping the last 2 together) should also add up to 100%.
Someone get a propeller for my head... I feel really smarrrrttt right now.
Lakes,
ReplyDeleteyou will do what you always do well in playoffs! IT IS... CRASH! Don't hype yourself up in vain. First, show some wins and then have a big mouths. GH will shut your dirty traps in just 3 days from now. Put some Vaseline on your butt holes. It will be easier to take it from GH and Garland this weekend.
I have sandbagged for 2 seasons for this moment and it will be great when I destroy all the chumps from GH and the Lakes!
ReplyDeleteTrent OBannon
I don't know if there is a bigger piece of sh!t than Obannon. All this guy does is cheat and then brag about it. I hope the rest of the Garland guys are happy winning this way.
ReplyDeleteCary, you keep mentioning Baker as a key player for Somabut, why? If he is that good how did he get thumped by Palacioz/Shanks in the Plano Open? he defintely did not look that good. Did he tank?
ReplyDeleteDo not tell me because he is better singles player either. He did not look like a ringer so either he was tanking or is not that good.
Unless O'Bannon doesn't know how to spell his own last name, I have some doubts that he originated the 1:48 post. But then anybody who misspells their own name may be moronic enough to make such over-the-top boasts.
ReplyDeleteActually Baker looks really good warming up at the Plano Open, but is clearly no doubles players. If he makes the same mistakes at singles that he does at doubles, he will be beaten down easily. He plays like his age would suggest.
ReplyDeleteNot sure that leaving out ' is mispelling a name when someone is posting on a blog, especially someone that plays on Garland.
ReplyDeleteHey 9:04 AM poster, you also need to brush up on your math skills.
ReplyDeleteIf you make those four bets with me, you will be handing over $2,000 before any matches are played. The amounts you would win depending on the winner are correct, but your profit is overstated by $500 in each case.
I think you might want to put that dunce cap back on that you referenced in the 4.5 thread.
Yeah O'Bannon/OBannon might be doing a head fake. By leaving out the apostrophe, he plants the seed that some slacker lowlife was the poster. The insult is still out there, but O'Bannon/OBannon looks like a victim of an obvious prank.
ReplyDeleteGerber,
ReplyDeleteNice to brag when you are playing with the kid. Wonder what your record would look like playing with an actual 4.0 player like Minchul, Stephen or Shawn. Keep trolling the high schools and midolothian country clubs big guy.
Thanks for the math, I will save this formula, I did this post in about 5 minutes. Bottom line is a lot of even teams. Unlike 4.5 which is a foregone conclusion and 3.5 for that matter as well.
Okay Poindexter July 14, 2010 3:10 PM
ReplyDeleteI ran the numbers manually, and your right. I think I have the formula correct now.
Earnings = IB X ODDS - IB So,
example 1:
$750 = $500 x (10/4) - $500 . That is the correct dollar amount. That makes sense.
Of course, when I go to Vegas, I don't tell people I won $750. I tell them I WON $1250 cause that is what they gave me back at the counter.
To further prove my new found geniousness, I will now use it in a sentence. Wooo hooo!!! I just won $1250!!! (footnote MINUS the IB $500 that you will never hear me mention)
Bazan, Gerber kicked your ass in singles last year when he was a 3.5 as we all remember. He was 2-1 this season between singles and playing with Minchul. Nice try. At least he has the balls to play unlike you.
ReplyDeleteSo Bazan, what is your foregone conclusion for 3.5?? Are you giving your little rod to big John too?? Say it isn't so.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction?? Big John walks away without a City title in both 4.0 and 3.5.
Confucious says......
Got a question for Lucky Thunder: Why the mention of Tyler Theriault as a potential diffence-maker this weekend? Have you seen him play? Or is it because he is a self-rated teenager playing on Somabut's team? (When did USTA captains start cruising the high schools for talent?)
ReplyDeleteTT's results are limited to four doubles matches, two of which are ugly losses. Of course, the possibility of score management/tanking always comes to mind. But we know Somabut is above that. Maybe TT played with a bad partner those days, or he himself had a bad day.
How about a little more insight into this unknown player.
Finally, I have two words for anyone considering score managing or tanking - muscle memory. You do something often enough and that's how your body will respond under pressure. Remember being told as a kid not to cross your eyes because they would stay that way.
I would be surprised if Theirault doesn't contribute and Spellman I didn't mention but not sure how many he can play in a weekend.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteAll of this trash talk is ridiculous. Gerber and Bazan both have strengths in their game. If I don't win city for either team, the sun will rise tomorrow and life will go on.
ReplyDeleteSisk
Completely inappropriate information for a tennis blog. I'm sure Marc would agree with me and will be happy to prohibit you from posting on the blog if you try to repost anyone's personal information.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeletePost your criminal information, then you can post his.
ReplyDeleteHow will we be notified of rating changes? Someone posted saying that USTA will publish them today., but where?
ReplyDeleteWhat players will get DQ this weekend?
ReplyDeleteCary!!
ReplyDelete"I would be surprised if Theirault doesn't contribute and Spellman" There are so many guys that have been flying under the radar all season on Bob's team, now your telling the world! Stop it!
Blake
If Spellman is in shape, he is a tough doubles player. Ihaven't seen him around in a few years. Many of you may not know him because he has played so little the last few years, but he can play.
ReplyDeletehe's dropped 30 pounds and has been playing 3-4 times a week. He did gain a bit right after he got married but who hasen't.
ReplyDeleteLooks like my Boys Vassberg and Frolov are safe from being DQ'd. They did not even get the mid season bump up.
ReplyDeleteNot that I think I got away with anything, but, obviously something else goes into the formula besides beating someone 2&2 or 2&1, or something else like that. They must have a formula for the quality of the opponent as well that is used.
ReplyDeleteI thought the same thing BMo. But really if we are rooting for Dallas teams to do well at sectionals we do not want anyone DQ'd from this point forward. It does not benefit any of the Dallas teams in DCC because the DQ's will happen after the DCC. The same teams will move on just without those players. DQ's from this point forward benefit the other cities not Dallas, unless the two Dallas teams meet up in the smi's or finals of sectionals.
ReplyDeleteArcaria,
ReplyDeleteUnless you have heard otherwise, DQs can happen after any match during the DCC. If a self-rated, tournament rated, mixed exclusive player generates their 3rd strike, they will be DQ'd out of the DCC. That is assuming that after the scores for each DCC round is recorded the tournament officials recalculate the dynamic rating of those players.
Not true. The computer runs on Monday and puts out names to Todd Reed for players with 3 strikes, hence the DQ. If they ran the computer each day of the weekend that would be the case, but they don't and they do not know about the strikes until it is too late.
ReplyDeleteThey will be running the computer each day. DQ's can happen during the DCC this year.
ReplyDeletewho confirmed that the computer would be run each day?
ReplyDeletewhy were some comments deleted? stop censoring the blog. i heard someone posted a full criminal history on trent obannon. this is damn important! if he is a thug, we all need to know. this is an embarrassment that sisk recruits now paroled thugs to play for him...
ReplyDeleteSomeone's background is not anyone's business. It's simply not your business and I can't believe some1 would stoop so low as to look it up.
ReplyDeleteJane said in an email awhile back that the DQs are ran on Monday, just like they did for QT, just like they will do for Nationals. So, No DQ will benefit another Dallas team.
If you believe that Jane is the last word and knows everything that is going to happen during the playoffs you are sadly mistaken. I have received incorrect information from Jane twice, just this year.
ReplyDeleteBelieve what you want to believe.
That just shows how low Sisk and his Garland team is. They hire a thug from 50 miles away to come to play for them.... wow!
ReplyDelete"Believe what you want to believe."...
ReplyDeleteok, I will. She get's the notifications, so she should know when someone is DQ'd and when it happens. Plus, she sent it, unprompted to all the captains. What makes you think you know more?
When is the last time, in 3-4 years, you have seen someone DQ'd on Friday for Saturday or Sunday match?
I would love to hear your answer on that one. Been at least 4 - 5 years.
OK Einstein,
ReplyDeleteGo to Tennis Link and check out:
Tor Erickson in 2007
Myra Epp in 2008
Both were DQ'd after the computer ran after each rpund on the playoffs.
The Tor Erickson DQ was one of the contributing factors of why computer rated players now can not be DQ'd through the National Tournament.
That doesn't hold true for everyone else.
I think both of these examples fall within your 3-4 year window.
Looks like they changed it in 2007cause Myra Epp played all her matches right until the last day. I remember that was about when they changed it.
ReplyDeleteThe Joy of Victory and the Agony of Defeat starts in about 8 hours...
ReplyDeleteI am going to give a beat down to anyone I play this weekend.
ReplyDeleteO'Bannon
Looks like Sisk was trolling the local jails when he came across Obannon.
ReplyDeleteIf you want a guaranteed victory against him, bring his mom to the match. Should be cause for an entertaining family fued, with Sisk between them trying to prevent black eyes.
I hope to score some reefer from this domestically violent kid! I hope I got to play you, obannon. Bring me some!
ReplyDeleteCan anyone post the complete DCC schedule with venues and start times for all matches (the one that goes to captains with mens/ladeis/all levels)
ReplyDeleteSISK and NANCY!
ReplyDeletewhy are you so quiet? sisk, you hit all time low. i understand you wanna win and recruit whoever... but not a total thug... jeez. have some respect, dude.
3rd cousin is barely family
ReplyDeletePOINDEXTER:
ReplyDeleteI still don't think I got it right. What is the correct formula on this? If there was a 40% chance of Garland to win, and I bet Garland. What would be the correct odds assuming that bets were placed equally (ie. 40 out of 100 people bet Garland)
Not correct odds, but correct formula for payout. Assuming 100 people bet, House wants to lose ZERO money at the end of the day.
ReplyDeleteThis has really got me stumped.
Nevermind, I think i got it right, but re checked it another way. (100 X 500 = $50,000 total prize pool). $50,000 / 40 people = $1250 - IB = $750 payout). it checks out.
ReplyDeleteI hope they have a metal detector walking into LB Houston tonight because you can guarantee that O'Bannon will be packing heat.
ReplyDeleteWe need a new poll for the blog.
ReplyDeleteWho wins in the battle for the final twinkee?
A. Sisk
B. Obannon looking for a munchie while baked out of his head
C. Wylie, as he sneaks in and snags it while the other two battle over it
It's spelled twinkie gooberhead, and this blog has taken its eye off the ball.
ReplyDeleteObannon will not get arrested tonite and luck out, because unlike Sisk, the Sherman PD do adhere to their 50 mile rule.
ReplyDeleteDCC at LB Houston?
ReplyDeleteLakes beat GH 3/2
ReplyDeleteMorrison screwed the pooch. Should've played Oleg at singles. AND he lost at line 1, ouchhhhhhh.
ReplyDeleteInstant Karma strikes back!!!
ReplyDeleteWent and watched some tonight.
ReplyDeleteSomabut better be hiding something. Pearson should have lost the match against a guy about 80 years old. Taylor continued to look good. Bearden and Spellman had their chances but Sierp was the best player on the court. Robinson is okay but Le is pretty average. Quist looked like he had some real skills. Deviney is not very strong and they looked like they were fooling around with Key and Wallace.
Lifetime looks like they may be the team. Carey is a ringer. Huynh is also good but not quite as strong as Carey. Bennett and Ho were getting drilled when I was watching and then I see they won. Lutes and Reiman must be shocked right now. Baker and Gerber just did not look like a doubles team but Baker is pretty good. Smith and Arcaria looked pretty good too. Smith looks to have some good skills.
With Garland, I think Sisk has some problems. His singles players both won but looked pretty sucky doing it. The old guy was a hacker and Zackary is another pusher. Clark and Rogers played fairly well but got beat by Mattes and Moore. Wiley and Prokarym got beat pretty good by Smith and Lumley. Lumley and Wiley looked like the best players on the court. Smith was good but noone should complain about Prokarym being too good. He flat out sucked. He should stay at 3.5. The two kids on the third line looked good, Price/Moreman. THey hit the ball big. They manhandled Newsome and Minor. I don't seen this line losing too much.
Lakes/Greenhill was a match most people wanted to see. The Blakes are good and both will easily beat anything Garland or Brookhaven have. Whitaker hammered Bergeron and Sinclair embarassed Werts too. Grossling and Wilson beat Morrison and Hopping. It was the first time I saw Grossling or Wilson. Wilson is a very good player. Totha and Downs are ready for 4.5. They embarassed Do and Fries and it was not too competitive. Vassberg and Balan beat Adams and Frick. I am not sure who was worse... Adams or Frick. Vassberg was very good. Balan is steady but Vassberg is tough.
Some more observations from last nights matches.
ReplyDeleteThe Sisk lineup was a little strange, no Obannon or Courtney. Still a nice win. They will need a little more to play GH and the Lakes.
The Lakes are for real and so much for Bazan picking these guys 3rd in the flight. Morrison should have worried more about just winning at 4.0 then winning 6-0 6-0 like he claimed prior to the season. Morrison the blog never forgets. It is always hard to tell who is available, but it seemed a little desperate to move Wertz to singles.
Lifetime looked good. Nice win for Bennett and Ho taking down Reiman and Lutes. Bazan, so much for those two not being able come up with any big wins. Not sure those two can continue to knock off big boys, but if so, Lifetime will be hard top beat.
Watching the Somabut team I got the opinion that this team has been overhyped all season. Singles is their strength and Taylor looked great. Pearson struggled a bit but is solid. Will be a great match whenever they and Lifetime meet up.
On a last note, watch out for Garland Brueckner, they lost but are very dangerous and probably should have won that match against team Bob.