Wednesday, August 18, 2010
4.0 Fall Preview - Flights are out
The first question to address is which teams will be truly vying to win in the Fall to take the City title, and which teams will be using the season to protect their ratings and get their self rates with computer ratings. With the Fall Season City winner now only securing a Spring QT spot, will teams really fight and risk losing players to bump ups to go and obtain it? With so many teams and players, I would have to think we would see another migration upward made by the USTA to get more players up to the 4.5 level, and more 4.5s up to the 5.0 level.
The 522 registered players are broken out into 5 flights:
Flight A - Lifetime Arcaria seems to get off easy being placed in this flight and should finish #1 or 2. This team comes off from going to Sectionals in the Spring and only losing a handful of players to mid-season bumps. As of now, only one of his "ringers" has re-signed but it is still early. He still has a core of solid players but are they enough to go to the finals back to back without re-stocking additional ringers? In this flight, my guess is he should make it just fine.
Runner ups - Springpark has a decent team and faired with a winning record in the Spring. My guess is they fair well and finish in the top 3 or 4. Stonebriar had a 50/50 record in the Spring and perhaps should do better in this flight. Huffhines Ratcliffe could also make a showing but he lacks the fire power in singles which carried him over a year ago to make the DCC.
New Comers - HP Kaiser appears to be the Bender 3.5 team going to Nationals minus a few players and adding to HP Jameson's remaining squad from the Spring. They could be the flight spoilers depending on how quickly they adjust to 4.0. Brookhaven Alzuro also has a team but not sure why he does as he struggled with most of these players in the watered down 3.5 Spring league.
Flight B - At first look you see Garland Sisk 1 and you begin to tremble. But taking a closer look at the Garland's 4 teams, I am abit miffed and confused. Each team just meets the 8 player minimum and he has some of his stronger players spread on the different teams and not lumped together. I guess when the Death Star imploded, it shot fragments of his squadron abroad and this is what is left over. The only way I see the Garland teams finishing in the top in any of the fligths is if there is some re-shuffling of players made to put the stronger ones together on one roster. Sisk must be in tight with Jane Gilpen to make something happen quickly.
Stonebridge Muniz should have a good team and with this flight the way it is, should have a shot at finishing in the top 3. Same with Canyon Creek.
New Comers- It appears fragments of the Death Star made it all the way to Fretz with Clark, Wiley & Co. having departed Garland with a few other players and formed their own team. They could definitely be the flight spoilers if they wanted to with a little more recruiting.
Flight C - O.K. We see HP Somabut. Same thing, start to shiver. Right? Wrong. What? There are two 3.0 self rates and a 3.5 self rate?? C'mon Bob, who are you kidding?? At least self rate them at the level they are playing in. Having guys who are truly 4.5s self rate at 3.0 just doesn't make sense and you are going to have Tosha calling you up one Monday to let you know she re-rated them to 4.0. It still doesn't protect them and you know it !! This is like laying all your cards on the table and tells me the Fall for this team will be getting proper computer ratings and building for the Spring. I don't see them taking any risks to make a run for the QT spot.
Greenhill has an impressive roster and they should finish in the top 3 if not taking the flight. Village Gordon should also do very well and could make a run at it. We see yet another Sisk team but this one is mainly his 3.5 bump ups with the exception of Tyler Price. My guess is that Tyler gets moved to another team, or the Fall and the spreading out of his key players on all these different rosters is to protect them from year end ratings and save them for the Spring.
Flight D - (I am starting to get tired here so forgive me if these start to get brief.) Brookhaven Strohl has a great squad and they finish within the top 3. High Point Bazan also has his core group of guys and were just shy of making the DCC in the Spring. They definitely make a running. While the Lakes had an impressive run this past Spring, it was mainly due to his 2 singles players which are no longer 4.0. While he has some good dubs players, they are not as strong as Strohl's or Bazan's and I see those 2 edging them out of any post-season hopes.
Garland Sisk 2 ??.......ZZZZZZ.....this is getting old. Not sure why Corcoran, Wickman, and Stein, aren't on team 1 with Price. Now Big John, don't go making changes based on my assessment. I'm sure you have something up your sleeve. I guess we will see how accomodating Jane is and what your rosters look like after the first match in September. We will be watching you!!!
Flight E - Brookhaven Pearlman has most of his team from the Spring in tact and should do well. Oak Creek should also be a finisher in the top 3. Another Garlad. JCC loses Lutes and Reiman which weaken their ability to compete agains Brookhaven or Oak Creek. Not much else of noting in this flight.
So there you have it. The low down on 45 teams and 522 players. Give us your insights and let the smack talking begin........
Posted by Captain Fantastic at 4:20 PM